Game Guy's Sweet Surprise: Difference between revisions

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==Mechanics==
==Mechanics==
At the beginning of the minigame, the Big Chomp is always assigned a multiplier of 2×, while the Little Chomp is equally likely to be assigned a multiplier of 4×, 8×, 16×, 32×, or 64×. The probability that the Little Chomp will finish its cake first depends entirely on the multiplier assigned to it; the moods of both Chain Chomps do not affect their likelihood of winning.<ref name=jengerer1>[https://web.archive.org/web/20220315133129/https://www.jengerer.com/big-chomp-and-little-chomp/ Blog post detailing reverse engineering of the mini-game]</ref>
At the beginning of the minigame, the Big Chomp is always assigned a multiplier of ×2, while the Little Chomp is equally likely to be assigned a multiplier of ×4, ×8, ×16, ×32, or ×64. The probability that the Little Chomp will finish its cake first depends entirely on the multiplier assigned to it. The moods of both Chain Chomps do not affect their likelihood of winning.<ref name=jengerer1>[https://web.archive.org/web/20220315133129/https://www.jengerer.com/big-chomp-and-little-chomp/ Blog post detailing reverse engineering of the mini-game]</ref>


At a fixed interval, one of the two Chain Chomps takes a bite of the cake. Below are the probabilities of either Chain Chomp taking a bite of its cake during an interval, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:
At a fixed interval, one of the two Chain Chomps takes a bite of the cake. Below are the probabilities of either Chain Chomp taking a bite of its cake during an interval, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:
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! Multiplier !! Chance [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]] takes a bite !! Chance [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]] takes a bite
! Multiplier !! Chance [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]] takes a bite !! Chance [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]] takes a bite
|-
|-
| 4× || 50% || 50%
| ×4 || 50% || 50%
|-
|-
| 8× || 60% || 40%
| ×8 || 60% || 40%
|-
|-
| 16× || 70% || 30%
| ×16 || 70% || 30%
|-
|-
| 32× || 80% || 20%
| ×32 || 80% || 20%
|-
|-
| 64× || 90% || 10%
| ×64 || 90% || 10%
|}
|}


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! Multiplier !! Chance [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]] wins !! Chance [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]] wins
! Multiplier !! Chance [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]] wins !! Chance [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]] wins
|-
|-
| 4× || 50.000% || 50.000%
| ×4 || 50.000% || 50.000%
|-
|-
| 8× || 70.927% || 29.073%
| ×8 || 70.927% || 29.073%
|-
|-
| 16× || 87.201% || 12.799%
| ×16 || 87.201% || 12.799%
|-
|-
| 32× || 96.460% || 3.540%
| ×32 || 96.460% || 3.540%
|-
|-
| 64× || 99.654% || 0.346%
| ×64 || 99.654% || 0.346%
|}
|}


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! Multiplier !! Bet on [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]] !! Bet on [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]] !! Higher EV
! Multiplier !! Bet on [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]] !! Bet on [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]] !! Higher EV
|-
|-
| 4× || 2''B'' × 0.50000 = '''1''B''''' || 4''B'' × 0.50000 = '''2''B''''' || [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
| ×4 || 2''B'' × 0.50000 = '''1''B''''' || 4''B'' × 0.50000 = '''2''B''''' || [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
|-
|-
| 8× || 2''B'' × 0.70927 ≈ '''1.419''B''''' || 8''B'' × 0.29073 ≈ '''2.326''B''''' || [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
| ×8 || 2''B'' × 0.70927 ≈ '''1.419''B''''' || 8''B'' × 0.29073 ≈ '''2.326''B''''' || [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
|-
|-
| 16× || 2''B'' × 0.87201 ≈ '''1.744''B''''' || 16''B'' × 0.12799 ≈ '''2.048''B''''' || [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
| ×16 || 2''B'' × 0.87201 ≈ '''1.744''B''''' || 16''B'' × 0.12799 ≈ '''2.048''B''''' || [[File:Little Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
|-
|-
| 32× || 2''B'' × 0.96460 ≈ '''1.929''B''''' || 32''B'' × 0.03540 ≈ '''1.133''B''''' || [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
| ×32 || 2''B'' × 0.96460 ≈ '''1.929''B''''' || 32''B'' × 0.03540 ≈ '''1.133''B''''' || [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
|-
|-
| 64× || 2''B'' × 0.99654 ≈ '''1.993''B''''' || 64''B'' × 0.00346 ≈ '''0.221''B''''' || [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
| ×64 || 2''B'' × 0.99654 ≈ '''1.993''B''''' || 64''B'' × 0.00346 ≈ '''0.221''B''''' || [[File:Big Chomp MP3.png|44px]]
|}
|}


The player should always bet on the Little Chomp if it has a multiplier of 4×, as it has the same chance of winning as the Big Chomp but double the expected value. At 8× and 16×, the Big Chomp is much more likely to win a single round, but the Little Chomp has a higher reward in the long run. At 32× and 64×, the Big Chomp's win rate and expected value are both higher than the Little Chomp's; betting on the Big Chomp in those cases is nearly guaranteed to result in double coins.
The player should always bet on the Little Chomp if it has a multiplier of ×4, as it has the same chance of winning as the Big Chomp but double the expected value. At ×8 and ×16, the Big Chomp is much more likely to win a single round, but the Little Chomp has a higher reward in the long run. At ×32 and ×64, the Big Chomp's win rate and expected value are both higher than the Little Chomp's; betting on the Big Chomp in those cases is nearly guaranteed to result in double coins.


==Controls==
==Controls==

Revision as of 13:39, October 30, 2023

Game Guy's Sweet Surprise
Game Guy's Sweet Surprise: Two differently sized Chain Chomps devouring their own cakes. From Mario Party 3.
Appears in Mario Party 3
Type Game Guy mini-game
Time limit 10 seconds to select a Chain Chomp
Music track Game Guy Mini-Game
Music sample

Game Guy's Sweet Surprise is a Game Guy minigame in Mario Party 3.

Gameplay

The player simply has to predict which Chain Chomp will finish eating its cake first. Before selecting a Chain Chomp, the player can read a description of the Chain Chomps' moods. If the player correctly predicts that the Big Chomp will finish first, the player's coins are doubled. However, if the player correctly predicts that the Little Chomp will finish first, the player's coins are multiplied by an even greater number: either 4, 8, 16, 32, or 64. If the player makes the wrong prediction, they lose all of their coins.

Mechanics

At the beginning of the minigame, the Big Chomp is always assigned a multiplier of ×2, while the Little Chomp is equally likely to be assigned a multiplier of ×4, ×8, ×16, ×32, or ×64. The probability that the Little Chomp will finish its cake first depends entirely on the multiplier assigned to it. The moods of both Chain Chomps do not affect their likelihood of winning.[1]

At a fixed interval, one of the two Chain Chomps takes a bite of the cake. Below are the probabilities of either Chain Chomp taking a bite of its cake during an interval, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:

Multiplier Chance An icon of the Big Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3. takes a bite Chance An icon of the Little Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3. takes a bite
×4 50% 50%
×8 60% 40%
×16 70% 30%
×32 80% 20%
×64 90% 10%

During the same interval, the Chain Chomp that took a bite has a 40% chance to take a second bite. The first Chomp to take six or more bites wins.[1] This means that the overall probabilities that either Chain Chomp will finish its cake first are as follows, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:[2]

Multiplier Chance An icon of the Big Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3. wins Chance An icon of the Little Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3. wins
×4 50.000% 50.000%
×8 70.927% 29.073%
×16 87.201% 12.799%
×32 96.460% 3.540%
×64 99.654% 0.346%

Expected value

Let B be the number of coins bet. The following table shows the EV for each multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp, as well as whether the player bets on the Big Chomp or the Little Chomp.

Multiplier Bet on An icon of the Big Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3. Bet on An icon of the Little Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3. Higher EV
×4 2B × 0.50000 = 1B 4B × 0.50000 = 2B An icon of the Little Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3.
×8 2B × 0.70927 ≈ 1.419B 8B × 0.29073 ≈ 2.326B An icon of the Little Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3.
×16 2B × 0.87201 ≈ 1.744B 16B × 0.12799 ≈ 2.048B An icon of the Little Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3.
×32 2B × 0.96460 ≈ 1.929B 32B × 0.03540 ≈ 1.133B An icon of the Big Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3.
×64 2B × 0.99654 ≈ 1.993B 64B × 0.00346 ≈ 0.221B An icon of the Big Chomp in Game Guy's Sweet Surprise from Mario Party 3.

The player should always bet on the Little Chomp if it has a multiplier of ×4, as it has the same chance of winning as the Big Chomp but double the expected value. At ×8 and ×16, the Big Chomp is much more likely to win a single round, but the Little Chomp has a higher reward in the long run. At ×32 and ×64, the Big Chomp's win rate and expected value are both higher than the Little Chomp's; betting on the Big Chomp in those cases is nearly guaranteed to result in double coins.

Controls

  • Control Stick left or Control Stick right – Choose Chain Chomp
  • A Button – Select Chain Chomp

Quotes

Both Chain Chomps can say anything listed below while the player is choosing one of them. These have no effect on the outcome of the game.

  • "I'm so hungry I could faint..."
  • "I haven't eaten since this morning."
  • "Love that cake!"
  • "I'm starvin'!"
  • "Food! Food!!!"
  • "Feed 'em faster!"
  • "No...more cake..."
  • "My tummy hurts..."
  • "It's too sweet..."
  • "I like mushrooms more than cake."

In-game text

  • Game Guy – "The Big Chomp and the Little Chomp will have a cake-eating race. Predict which one will be the quicker cake eater. If you guess right, you'll get more coins. But, if you guess wrong, your coins will be mine."

Gallery

  • A rare case of the Little Chomp winning. The Big Chomp did not even get a chance to bite the cake.

    A rare case of the Little Chomp winning. The Big Chomp did not even get a chance to bite the cake.

Names in other languages

Language Name Meaning
Japanese ケーキでバトル
Kēki de batoru
 Battle with Cake

References

  1. ^ a b Blog post detailing reverse engineering of the mini-game
  2. ^ More precise calculation of overall probability
[Edit]
Minigames from Mario Party 3
4-Player minigames Aces High • Awful Tower • Bounce 'n' Trounce • Cheep Cheep Chase • Chip Shot Challenge • Curtain Call • Frigid Bridges • Ice Rink Risk • Mario's Puzzle Party • Messy Memory • M.P.I.Q. • Parasol Plummet • Picture Imperfect • Pipe Cleaners • Rockin' Raceway • Snowball Summit • The Beat Goes On • Toadstool Titan • Treadmill Grill • Water Whirled
1-vs-3 minigames Boulder Ball • Coconut Conk • Crazy Cogs • Hand, Line and Sinker • Hide and Sneak • Ridiculous Relay • River Raiders • Spotlight Swim • Thwomp Pull • Tidal Toss
2-vs-2 minigames Baby Bowser Broadside • Cosmic Coaster • Eatsa Pizza • Etch 'n' Catch • Hyper Hydrants • Log Jam • Picking Panic • Puddle Paddle • Pump, Pump and Away • Slot Synch
Battle minigames All Fired Up • Eye Sore • Locked Out • Merry-Go-Chomp • Slap Down • Stacked Deck • Storm Chasers • Three Door Monty
Duel minigames Baby Bowser Bonkers • Bowser Toss • Crowd Cover • End of the Line • Fowl Play • Motor Rooter • Popgun Pick-Off • Silly Screws • Tick Tock Hop • Vine With Me
Item minigames Bobbing Bow-loons • Dorrie Dip • Hey, Batter, Batter! • Swinging with Sharks • Swing 'n' Swipe • Winner's Wheel
Rare minigames Dizzy Dinghies • Mario's Puzzle Party Pro • Stardust Battle
Game Guy's minigames Game Guy's Lucky 7 • Game Guy's Magic Boxes • Game Guy's Roulette • Game Guy's Sweet Surprise
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